If Recession Materializes, What Might It Mean For Stocks?
For those reading the business press, 2025 has had no shortage of headlines. Swings in the stock and bond market in April equalled some of the most extreme events of…
Can A Reduction In Government Spending Impact GDP?
With the first quarter coming to a close, we can definitively say that it has been an eventful start to the year. Headlines of tariff wars, government spending cuts, and…
What Consumer Confidence Tells Us About Unemployment & The S&P 500
After the blistering August heat, the cool(er) winds of fall are always welcome. This year the economy appears to be cooling off at the same time. Last week, we received…
The Fed Is Cutting Rates: What Does It Mean For Asset Allocation?
By now, you’ve probably heard the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates in September. In explaining the thinking of the board, Chairman Jerome Powell cited: A hiring and quits…
Unemployment Data, The Sahm Rule & The Beveridge Curve
Leading indicators (e.g., the yield curve) have warned of recession since 2022. While useful, they have a variable lag time. The phenomena a leading indicator predicts (in this case, recession)…
The Two-Year Lag: What Is Economic Data Telling Us?
Earlier this year, we wrote about the 2-year lag in monetary policy and why this mattered so much for 2024. As we’re halfway through the year, have we seen the…
How We Think About Portfolio Value and Achieving Retirement Income
A common headline in the financial press reads: "Experts Say You Need X Portfolio Value To Retire." These articles must garner significant attention, given their proliferation. Are they accurate? We've…
Unemployment Revisions, Bankruptcies & The Fed’s Dovish Turn
Coming into 2024, the headlines touted higher-than-expected employment numbers. Contrary to expectations, the labor market appeared resilient to higher interest rates. Then came the unemployment revisions. January's payroll gains, upon…
AI’s Impact on Market Breadth: A Sign of Caution?
It has been hard to avoid AI news in markets recently. Big tech companies have been anxious to announce the amount they’re spending to keep up in the AI arms…
Why 2022 Matters For 2024: The 2-Year Lag & Unemployment
Last week, we received a mixed bag of employment data: The NFP Establishment Survey was nothing to write home about. NFP Household Survey was, in comparison, a bit uglier. Then,…